Lifecycle of Polls

Nothing like a poll about New Brunswick politics to get tongues wagging.


New Brunswick's Flag
The recent release of a poll suggesting that the Liberals under Shawn Graham are making strong inroads into the hearts and minds of New Brunswickers may be true statistically, but in reality, well that's a television show.

"The opposition Liberal party has extended its lead in New Brunswick, according to a poll by Corporate Research Associates. 46 per cent of respondents in the Canadian province would vote for the Liberals—led by Shawn Graham—in the next legislative election, a four per cent increase since August". Poll breakdown results by period- Political Poll New Brunswick.

The reality is some what different. Here's why I think that current polls are missing a greater truth.

Over the weekend, met some out of Province New Brunswickers partying in Halifax. I can usually kill a festive spirit or party chatter by asking what they think of Bernard Lord, or the fate of the Province of New Brunswick' s future economy. Quick as flat mix.

This time everyone squirmed and when I pressed on with my advantage of sobrietry over wine enabled, festive spirit, with the mention of the Liberals and Shawn Graham, the squirms became unbearable to watch.

The reality is that "no one" as a candidate and Provincial Party is beating out the current choice.

The reason for this is a vague sense of uneasiness with Premier Lord, who on the street perception is that he is slowly recovering his momentum and personal popularity enough to wrestle another term away from the Liberals.

The reason for the Liberal wavering is their apparent lack of a visible program of leadership on issues, and the Liberal Party appears to gain ground by remaining invisible. True, they put out the obligatory press release, but Mr. Excitement , they are not.

What a minority government usually means is that there is a time out while the party that is going to win next and win big, is doing what it takes to win. Notice that going on in New Brunswick?. Not.

The poll suggests a surging Liberal Party, the reality is that in a mid term correction of preferences and with the New Democratic Party , now more invisible than the Liberals, the natural pull of political gravity is favouring the Liberals, over the sitting Conservatives who still have to govern and make tough choices.

But the real point, is that every time I question randomly what I consider to be thinking and thoughtful New Brunswickers, about their perception of their Province, the results are disturbing.

They know much is wrong and much needs to be done and thought through. To a person, they see no visible signs of anyone, including Premier Lord and Premier-Perhaps Graham, having a real plan of action to implement.

New Brunswick, as is evidenced by the falling GDP numbers and a hundred other provincial economic indicators is sliding into real and potentially sustained decline. This was driven home by the Local's Choice profile this week on the economic researchers at ShiftCentral.

You can argue whose fault it is and whether former Premier McKenna's approach was flawed or over hyped, but it is clear to everyone that hiding our light under a bush and sliding along under the radar as Premier Lord is doing is also not working well either, for all New Brunswickers.

On the horizon, there does not appear to be anyone with a strong sense of what to do and when to do it and this is disturbing. Every Premier and Party leader since Premier Robichaud has not been quite as strong as the person that preceded them as Party Leader or on occasion as Premier; or so it has been said to me by political insiders.

I do not argue whether that is consistently true, but I do know that the pace of reversal of fortunes is picking up and this is not just a cycle of polls or a downturn in forestry prices or directly a result of the disappearance of mining per se. New Brunswick is getting hammered on all sides.

Meanwhile, we are dismantling our main economic engine of growth for the past 50 years - NB Power and turning it into a commodity engine for economic speculators- and perhaps we have no choice in this matter.

But where is the plan?

Who speaks for New Brunswick and why are they silent?

If a political party can struggle ahead of the sitting Government and Premier by a nosehair- and that is what this poll shows in statistical analysis, then imagine what a political party could do by putting forward an agenda of recovery and change that addresses that deep sense of disquiet that pervades New Brunswick.

It was in full pervasion among the New Brunswick guests that I grilled over the weekend in Halifax.

The cruelest cut of all.

A well enabled festive Nova Scotian, commenting on my query of all New Brunswickers about their perceptions of the Current State of the Province, said thoughtfully," you guys in New Brunswick, really had something going there a few years, ago, .....too bad I guess about now. Down here...we're the ones cooking now"

Humbug.

Moncton's Major Drilling-Major Success

Francis McGuire was looking very pleased with himself at the reception held at ShiftCentral's offices this past week to celebrate the Christmas season and to welcome economic development officials visiting from Maine.

He obviously knew something that we didn't that night and that is the announcement by press release carried on CP wire on December 08, that Major Drilling has posted it best quarter financial results in recent history.

Francis, an extremely energetic manager, was the Deputy Minister of Economic Development during the Frank McKenna years as Premier and landed the position of President of Major Drilling a few years ago. Today, McKenna is Chair of the Board of Directors of Major Drilling,

Francis has worked extremely hard under difficult international marketing conditions for mineral exploration and prices to get the publicly traded Major Drilling on track to be one of the region's leading business investment plays. The company has rigs literally placed around the world as mining companies outsource the drilling of test holes and mining exploration to Major Drilling.

Globally, and working from head offices in Moncton, they are a significant player in the mining industry as the make up of the Board of Directors atests.

Here's the headline of the announcement with a link to additional information as well as Major Drilling's Web site.

Hats off to McGuire and his team at Major Drilling- a real Moncton success story.

Major Drilling Group fiscal 2005 Q2 profits double to $4.7M from $2.3M

Canadian Press
December 8, 2004

" MONCTON (CP) - Major Drilling Group International Inc. reported its highest quarterly profits ever, more than doubling earnings in the latest three-month period as the mine driller generated soaring revenues.

The Moncton-based company (TSX:MDI) said Wednesday it earned $4.7 million or 22 cents a share for the three months ended Oct. 31, the second quarter of the company's 2005 fiscal year. That compared with a profit of $2.3 million or 11 cents a share for the same period last year.
Revenues jumped 45 per cent to $67.2 million - the highest level in the company's history - from $46.3 million.

Major Drilling was founded by Ron Goguen, a former City of Moncton police officer and part time insurance salesman, whom I recall seeing in the Bathurst region in the early 70's going mineshaft door to mineshaft door, in the Brunswick Mining boomdays, selling his line of diamond head rock cutting drill bits.

He would then drive back to Moncton and work his shift for the City and eventually he went big time and took the company public in the early 90's. Like all business entrepreneurs he flew, like Icarus of the Greek legend too close to the sun at times and his launch of the region's leading professional class Royal Oaks Golf Course now takes all his considerable time and energy. His idea of semi retirement is to cut back to 60 hours a week from 80.

In an age where companies that focus on the raw resource of electronic bytes , it is rewarding to see that an industrial service supply company like Major Drilling can be a worldwide industry leader focusing on providing the bits as in drill bits that open up the precious metals of the world.

www.majordrilling.com

Moncton Tops Locations Survey

I think it was Willie Nelson who said he had been working hard for 25 years to be an overnight sensation, when as a middle aged man he started winning music awards.

Moncton fits that sardonic observation on overnight success to a T.

The sudden interest and judgement on Moncton feels like it is an overnight success, but there has been a concentrated effort since 1980 to insure Moncton's survival and that story has many elements, but key to it all has been a Can-Do attitude.

The article uses the recent announcement on the Molson's brewing plant coming to Moncton as a sample of the cost factors favouring Moncton

There is a wonderful story in this month's issue of Canadian Business on the best business locations in Canada. Moncton -Riverview-Dieppe combined register the best score among all English communities of similar size. The article is online at "The best Cities for Business in Canada".

The contention of the article, based on a national survey of component costs for a business location choice is that in its' population class size, Moncton is not only a competitive location in which to do business, it is a cost effective and best location in Canada, to locate a new business.

Many of the components mentioned have been the subject of much effort and financial as well as human capital investment over the past 25 years to overnight gain recognition for as a desirable community. Willie would understand.

If you do not have time to read the articles, then the press release printed below captures the main points, as do these quoted excerpts from the Canadian Business Magazine article.

It is an education in how communities are scored by site location analysts when you read the list of City cost location components and scoring that was compiled to arrive at the scores. Moncton narrowly beat out St. John's, Newfoundland and was scored behind Saguenay, PQ, which won the French language and culture classification of communities.

You can get the magazine reserved by contacting Reid's newsstand in Moncton, on Main, or at their Reid's Riverview location by calling them, or by reading the complete article online at www.canadianbusiness.com .

There is in the last paragraph of the positive profile article about Moncton a great irony with Derek Oland, of Moosehead Breweries, who has been vociferous in his criticque of the deal and the Province's role is providing incentitives.

Oland is quoted at length from a speech he gave last year in which, Oland praised Moncton's moxie and marketing savvy to build out the welcome mat to new business location and economic development efforts.

Excerpt: Canadian Business Article: "Setting up a 250-person business in Moncton costs $3.6 million less than doing the same thing in Vancouver, Canada's most expensive and worst-performing English-speaking city, according to our survey, which examined the operating costs of doing business (salaries and benefits, construction costs, utilities, taxes, travel and equipment costs), the cost of living, economic growth and crime rates in each of the country's 40 largest metropolitan areas, plus Charlottetown".

"(This year's survey separated out English-Canadian and Quebec cities, reflecting their differences in culture, business climate, laws and corporate appeal.)"

The Canadian Business article is also laudatory of Premier Bernard Lord, and his government's business tax policies as attempts at making the Province cost effective as a business location in Canada, something that Moncton marketers are quick to take advantage of.

Excerpt: Canadian Business Article: "Indeed. Five years ago, New Brunswick had Canada's highest corporate tax rates. "

"Now it boasts the second-lowest in English Canada".

" The province also has no payroll taxes, as well as the lowest small-business tax rate (2.5%), and the highest threshold of what is defined as a small business, at $425,000 of taxable earnings".

"Those figures will move to 1% and $500,000 by 2007. Still, Lord knows that's not enough, so the province's business development arm also spends about $25 million a year on various campaigns".


Here is the highlights of the press release announcing the article and coverage of Moncton as well as other cities in Canada.

The Best Canadian Cities for Business

Canadian Business magazine ranks 41 cities' cost and competitiveness.

TORONTO, Nov. 21 /CNW/ - Canadian Business magazine today unveiled its third annual ranking of the most advantageous places in Canada to do business.

Based on research conducted by Boyd Co. Inc., the surprising report reveals that Saguenay, Quebec and Moncton, New Brunswick are the best cities in Canada in which to set up shop, based on variable operating costs, cost of living, GDP growth, employment and crime rate.

"Whatever the incentive, corporations are choosing seemingly out-of-the-way locations for many of their new projects," says Senior Writer Andy Holloway.

The report also breaks down the results for two other Canadian regions: Ontario (Peterborough) and Western Canada (Edmonton).

Regional details, in addition to those in this release, are available through the media contacts below.

Rank of select major centres:
English Canada:
Edmonton (5th); Winnipeg (7th); Halifax (10th); Toronto (35th); Vancouver (36th)
French Canada:
Quebec City (4th); Montreal (5th)

Methodology
The cities selected for the Canadian Business survey of Canada's best cities include the country's 40 largest census metropolitan areas, plus Charlottetown, in order to provide regional balance.

We ranked cities on five factors reflecting socio-economic health-the variable operating costs of doing business, the cost of living, GDP growth and the unemployment and crime rates. The final ranking weights each factor based on a North American survey of more than 5,000 people rating the importance of various site selection criteria.

About Canadian Business:
Founded in 1928, Canadian Business is the longest-serving, bestselling and most trusted business publication in Canada.

Canadian Business stands alone as the business magazine in Canada with 100% paid circulation. With a readership of more that one million, the magazine is published every second Monday, except in January, July and August when monthly issues are published.

Special annual issues of Canadian Business include the Investor 500, the MBA Guide, the Rich 100 and the Best and Worst Boards. Visit http://www.canadianbusiness.com/.